Seth Godin sees it as technology will become more and more part of our life -- free hard drive space, digital camera high usage, always on broadband or that "your current profession will either be gone or totally different". It got me thinking about what Romania will be like in 5 years from now on:
- we will be probably be nearly joining the EU
- Adrian Nastase will be the Romanian president
- a more mature business environment with a new class of leaders
- more pragmatism and seriosity at the decision making level. Also more respect!
- more entrepreneurs and cool ventures
- finally Bucharest will have a more decent look, especially downtown in the old area which will be pedestrian only.
- Ryan Air will operate in Bucharest as such it will become a foreign attraction in terms of weekend tourism. Not sure about the seaside though.
- still no Champion League representative but that's ok.
Anybody takes the challenge of making some predictions?
These sound pretty plausible to me. Barring a recession, Romania's economy should continue to grow by about 4% per year. That means that, in 5 years, it could be about 20% larger. However, this does not mean that Romanians will be 20% richer. In the last 3 years, Romania's GDP has grown by about 15%, but wages have only risen by about 4%. Then there's the whole income distribution issue, which I'm not going to touch just now. So, maybe we'll all feel better off; but then again, perhaps not. Hm. Okay, how about this. Barring a recession or financial crisis, financial markets will continue to grow rapidly. So: -- the national mortgage market will grow from about $700 million this year to more than $3 billion by 2009 -- the factoring market will grow from about $300 million to more than $1 billion -- the microfinance market will grow from about $50 million to around $250 million Banking sector assets per person will at least double and may triple. What else? The birthrate might stabilize, but seems unlikely to rise. So there'll be about 400,000 fewer Romanians. Like losing Cluj, with its suburbs. That's not counting emigration, mind you. On the other hand, Bucharest will continue to grow (and housing prices here will rise sharply). I think 5 years is about the right horizon for the beginning of rapid restructuring in the agriculture sector. Watch for massive investment flows into farming and dairy and ranching, with modernization happening with surprising speed. This will be a net good thing, but will not happen without difficulties. 40% of Romania's population is working in this sector right now, so the rest of the economy will have to suddenly absorb a lot of ex-farmers. If China's economy doesn't suffer a sudden check (a wild card there) watch for a boom in mineral and metallurgical products. Romania produces quite a lot of these -- everything from aluminum to cement. Higher world prices for these products would allow reinvestment, modernization, and long-term competitiveness. (Of course, they might also go to buying nice houses, girlfriends and cars for the owner-managers of the relevant enterprises.) On the other hand, continued Chinese (and Indian) growth is going to put serious pressure on low-wage sectors, like much of the garment industry. All those Italian factories making jeans and t-shirts? I doubt they'll be here in 2009. Watch for a Romanian breakout in at least one good value-added sector. I think IT is very promising here, though the competition will be fierce. Romania's politics will continue to be driven by personalities and factions rather than ideology. Romania's forests will continue to disappear without anyone paying much attention. By 2009, the Carpathian brown bear will be in serious trouble. At least one Romanian writer or artist will be an international success, either at the mass-market household name level or (more likely) among educated connousieurs. This person is presently under 30 years old. However, despite vigorous efforts, no Romanian singer, rapper, or pop performer will acheive broad European success; and the Eurovision trophy will visit Romania only when it flies overhead on its way from the former USSR to the former Yugoslavia and back. How do those sound? Doug M.
They makes a lot of sense. I am also seeing tourism industry as a growing one, in spite of the poor marketing on the national level. This is due to a combination of factors, most important of all because Budapest and Prague - the traditional tourism weekend destinations - will become more expensive (mature from an investment point of view) as such the Bucharest and Romanian huge getaway opportunities will be discovered. Btw, there's plenty of tourists in Bucharest these days - I was pleasantly surprised to discover it actually. Also, even though I share with you that agriculture is one of Romania's strong unexploited points I doubt that the restructuring process is straightforward. I see the investements you mention, I just can't see enough people for getting involved in the level necessary for making it happen. This is because (1) people from the countryside tend to migrate to urban areas and (2) there's been a lot of migration not only to urban area but abroad and I doubt the number will decrease in the following 5-10 years due to the salary assymetries - see people going to Spain for picking up strawberries. As such I can also see an increasing foreign currency flowing in from these people working abroad. As for the cultural side - economics still and will dictate so it will be increasingly difficult for something real good to emerge. There's a lot of interests and egos, just like as you mentioned it exists in politics, and this makes me believe that the value creation process will be not only distorted but also badly understood. Just like now, so I expect no changes. My 2 cents of course...
Mostly I agree with you, but I think this point is flawed: "- we will be probably be nearly joining the EU" Romania is nearly guaranteed to join the EU in 2007, and there is basically a 100% chance it will join in 2007 or 2008... with 2008 being reserved only for major problems that the EU is making a point of now in order to pressure Romania to progress, but which will never really be enforced. That's how I see it anyway. I agree that business, tourism and infrastructure will develop... Bucharest will look decent, I still see it in many ways as Romania's black hole - although it is the richest part of the country, it doesn't look all that good. RyanAir will operate to Bucharest soon... probably 2005 or 2006, so we wouldn't have to wait till 2009. In terms of economic growth, I think Romania will boom in 2004-2009, with growth rates of around 6%, especially if the agricultural harvest is good. This should produce some nice results for our economy. Can Romania become the Vlach Tiger?
I wish it became that little tiger, but there's a longer way to go to be in that position. Personally I am a big fan of South Korea. Ryan Air, as well as any foreign budget airlines, is unlikely to operate in Romania untill the government signs the EU treaty permitting carriers to do it so. The Romanians postponed signing it off for protecting Tarom. Btw, in case you didnot know, the only one operating - the Italian Volare - went bankrupt, and Blue Air still awaits for the OK to fly. :)
I want to know how to become a singer / rapper so if you could give me tips