December 2004
Basescu appointed Tariceanu as expected to form the new government
which - surprise - was formally approved by the Parliament last Monday and
already started
to work. It should be noted that it is one of the youngest and most
promising (in terms of competence) cabinets Romania has had since 1989. Good
news, good news every day lately actually - it hasn't looked so good in a
long time, this could be the tipping point for Romania as a friend of mine
put it very well on IM today.
Howdy folks, as it is the end of the year most of you perhaps are aware of the top of the Romanian bloggers held over at Gabi Mihalache's. Below you could see my nominations and you could also put in yours.
Professional
Coniecto
LIRD
Totalitarism Today
Kit
Gabi Radic
Amusing
Perfectly Imperfect
Practical
Prinsea
Romanian RSS
Provocative
Perfectly Imperfect
Presa de ziare
Alternative
Individualism
Maktaaq
Best Photography
Troniu
Andreiard
Crisser
Roboot
Octiliniu
Other very good ones that I couldn't place in any of the required categories:
Deea
George
Eugen
Ciopartelu
Iulian
Tudor
I've been busier than I would have expected it these days with some last moment issues. I will take some days off right after Christmas, probably go somewhere in the mountains and try some snowboarding or such. As a consequence posting will be light to none these days.
Next year I am considering some very interesting projects, related to @rgumente and even more - I will certainly let you know, so stay tuned. I wish you all a merry Christmas and enjoy the holidays!
I didn't bother to mention it since I found it a simple procedure, but Romania, along with Bulgaria and Croatia, has been given the official acceptance of being able to sign the papers in April for EU joining in 2007. More importantly on that meeting Turkey and EU agreed upon the pre-negotiation terms and started lots of debates and controversies within the EU states. I personally don't believe in Turkey's candidacy since the cultural differences appear to create big tensions. For everybody to save face perhaps this could be a likely scenario.
I heard Iliescu at the BBC news tonight -- he says that his mandate has a positive bottom line as Romania has evolved from being isolated during Ceausescu to being a NATO member and future member of EU. He forgot to mention though that it took us 2-3 times longer than all our neighbors and said that he had no means to do it faster (sic!)
Also he claimed he will not quit politics - something I was expecting and it will be interesting to see if he and Nastase will be able to co-lead PSD and mantain a status-quo. Nastase's had a huge chance to gain in his image by speculating from last week's gaffe - he didnot and i don't understand why, perhaps he doesn't have what it takes to fight the old man.
My bet is that sooner rather than later (perhaps in less than 2-3 years) PSD will be divided in the elderly versus the fresh blood, and Iliescu's faction will either be marginalized from PSD (unlikely since the guy likes the power) or will merge with the extremist PRM. What do you think?
Didier is posting his weblog stats (660 daily pageviews and 317 daily hits for December) and compares them with Loic's (543/362) and Rodrigo's (243/183).
It turns out that I am not doing as bad as I thought - according to Sitemeter I am having an average number of daily 350/158 pageviews/hits. It doesn't consider people using the rss readers though. I have a constant readers base, Google or Yahoo Search bring in about 20% and as a general rule traffic is increasing considerably by being mefi-ed, (which I have for a few times :)) writing critics about Apple or hot subjects such as the elections.
What works and what doesn't in online advertising? Popups make the top of the hate list. What works -- nothing in particular, just some common sense principles get mentioned (i.e. make the users' options clear, speak plainly, and provide the information users want). As Daniel put it everywhere you have content you will have ads, the trick is how and to whom you present it.
Bosch started early this year a 3-year investment project in Hungary. Krogos had a tiny little contribution this summer developing an app for the Romanian branch and which now is in a pilot project in Hungary for being implemented across the entire group. I know, I am boasting, but it feels good. :)
Did you know that that majority ownership of the European airline companies must remain in the hands of EU investors, otherwise the company loses its right to fly in the EU without being subject to the bilateral agreements between the U.S. and EU countries? [link]
It's old news now, but certainly worth mentioning - the last product released by Yahoo! Next (the Google Labs equivalent) is a video search now in beta version. Jeremy's got the scoop.
What do you focus on in the first year after launching your product? On the what - revenue plan accomplishment - or on the why - why people are interested in what we do, why they turn into real prospects, why they become customers, and why they buy more stuff from us? Read for yourselves.
It looks like Apple partnered with Motorola for launching a mobile phone also able to play the music from iTunes. It will most likely be a co-branded phone. What I find even more interesting is that Russ had anticipated it a few weeks ago, proving once more that he knows his stuff. Here is the official story.
The president-elect, Traian Băsescu, will travel to Brussels with an airline flight, because he refused to take the same plane as Ion Iliescu, as a consequence of the acting president's decision of pardoning Miron Cozma. [...] Băsescu stated that Ion Iliescu "cannot hold at the same time his hand and Miron Cozma's."" [link]
hey, I start to like this guy more and more. :)
A few days ago Claudia was mentioning 11 things for which she loved Romania. My response was that (and this is part of me returning to Romania) one of the most fascinating things here is that you never get bored since there's always something happening that triggers a sentiment -- be it anger, frustration, joy, happiness or outrage.
Well, the last one is the (probably and hopefully the very) last decision (still) president Iliescu made today - he revoked his yesterday's decision of releasing Miron Cosma from prison. While he tries to correct a huge mistake I believe that this is an incredible fact -- one cannot become more ridiculous other than this way. I am just astounded, firstly I couldn't believe it, not it is official apparently.
Apparently the story goes like this -- the release decision couldn't have become official without Nastase's signature. Initially Nastase claimed he never signed it off, then few hours later he declared he did. Contradictory, eh? The plain truth is that Nastase never signed the decision, somebody else did it in his place and that triggered a bit of a tension between himself and Iliescu. And also the public opinion put a HUGE pressure on Iliescu and so the old man turned it back. Any way you would look at it the back and forth decision is a big political mistake.
My conclusions -- that's a typical way Romania has been led for the last 14 years, and I am (once more) relieved to see the old man go (I tend to agree with Troniu on this one - we will never be sure we'll be on the right path until the old man is gone for good - literally). Iliescu corrects a huge mistake that actually may not be as evident since it is said that Miron Cosma is already in Timisoara looking for leaving the country. Moreover, the decision is applicable to all the 44 gangsters, and that's only because of Cosma - an interesting situation even though the other 43 are as criminal as Cosma is. I only hope that all the naive people thinking that (and voting for) Iliescu was an honorable old man who did good things for Romania got their lesson and saw his real face. Finally Basescu should speculate this moment by showing the exact role of presidency and the entire moral of the story. It would be a mistake not to. :)
UPDATE: 1. Reading more carefully, the linked piece of news says that the release decision will be "re-analyzed" and not revoked.
2. According to the 2pm news Cosma was already arrested back in Timisoara and he tried to resist it. The police did its duty and I feel safer now. :)
What do you mean who is Miron Cosma? :)
He used to be the former leader of the miners who was asked by Iliescu to come together with his mates in 1990 and in 1991 to Bucharest for "calming down" the peaceful protesters against Iliescu and his government - the communists that is. The results: Bucharest was vandalized, there were a few people assasinated by the miners, and lots were beaten. Was it a legal thing? Of course not. Did the State's institutions take any measure foir punishing who was responsible? Of course not, Iliescu was covering the whole thing.
Well, in 1999 Miron Cozma tried the same trick since the newly appointed government was taking restructuring economic measures with respect to mines. Remember that Iliescu was in opposition at that time. So Cosma took his miners and marched to Bucharest threatening to do the similar things he did in 1990 and 1991. Well, it didn't work out - Radu Vasile, the PM at that time, met him somewhere at half of the road and calmed him down. And he then asked the Justice to take action. The result: Cosma and the other leaders were imprisoned for some 18 years.
Now, surprise, surprise: this morning Iliescu uses his presidential power to release Miron Cosma from prison. I think it is an outrageous thing, but Iliescu has debts to pay, and he does pay them in the very last moment. This is Iliescu - the guy who harmed Romania perhaps more than anybody else in the last 15 years, because what he did and what could have done and hadnot.
What is even more outrageous is finding Romanians of good faith (second comment and the whole comment thread) who are very understandable with this old man, moreover claiming that "he was a good president" and truly believing that Romania's success is due to him and Nastase's government. Is this a good enough proof of the quality of the old man?
Nastase's story is very simple, he or his government have nothing or very little to do with the present economic boom. He just happened to be there, Romania was forced to take good measures by the institutional lenders (aka World Bank or IMF) and EU. As simple as that. Also, people familiar with the Romanian economic evolution in the last decade may confirm that the 1996 - 2000 administration - now impopular - took some very painful but necesarry economic and fiscal measures, saving a country which was on a brink of disaster in 1996 and preparing the grounds for economic growth in the next 4-6 years. And Nastase's government simply benefited from that.
I received from Adi and Paul Wood (via Romania Economics) the following counter editorial from Academia Catavencu. The first paragraph is Paul's comment.
Nastase was voted for by the fools. Not by the fools protected by metaphors, but exactly those fools expressed dryly by the figurers: the fools without education, those who are inclined to skipping classes and those who gave up school since childhood, Catavencu's counter-editorial characterizes the Romanian elections.
"It is incredible but a tireless conspiracy of fools has played the same card for years and years, keeping in power a profitable combination of theft, pretense, hooliganism and Marxism. Out of the voters who haven't finished high school, 62% preferred Adi while out of those over 65, around 63% did the same thing. The rural area has, as usual, paid off massively: 59%. Therefore, we have ourselves again a map of masses that are easy to tame, uneducated, uninformed, a little nostalgic and a little stupid, but numerous and sensitive to state bribery. A mirror-like cynicism, the diluted twin of the Social Democratic Party (PSD)'s cynicism is making these Pavlovian crowds rise at a single sign and, as though under the influence of narcotics to place in the ballot boxes, inextricably, the same vote again and again."
I have said it on this blog at least twice --- Iliescu is behind most of the political dark background nowadays in Romania. Personally I think he is one the people who have done the most damage on the national level since 1989 - he actually was one of the main actors behind the entire power change plot and having Ceasusescu shot in 1989.
But I digress - the reason of this posting is linking two 2 great editorials (written in Romanian) calling things on their name. One about the double game of Voiculescu and his party (PUR) insignificance in the early elections case. The other about Romania finally becoming more serious by Basescu's "what you see is what you get" attitude or his energic position on both in the government making process and in the EU negotiation chapter issue. Both articles conclude with the fact that Iliescu and his ideas inspired from his communist past are behind the entire mechanisms or circus that is happening right now in the post-election agitation. And this is very bad.
And those two great articles are signed by the best Romanian journalists at the moment: Cornel Nistorescu and Traian Radu Ungureanu. Those guys have come a long way on the Romanian journalism scene and are lucid, acid and realistic, the exact needed attributes for a journalist.
Gabi offered his consulting services for the Romanian presidency -- I think it's a considerate offer, even though some think it's foolish, we need more of those, we need quality people getting involved. It actually reminded me of the old "don't ask what your country does for you but what you can do for your country". And it is a good example. And btw, Basescu specifically declared that he intends to gather the Romanians from all over the world to stick to the same cause.
Speaking of PUR and UDMR declarations of supporting PSD then DA then PSD:
"Voiculescu, pleaca-n Congo!
Ia-ti si gasca ta de hoti
Ca sa rida negrii toti
Cind il pupi-n cur pe Bombo!" [link]
It's basically a little parodical poem about PUR's Voiculescu changing overnight again his support and giving credit to PSD one day after he switched from PSD to DA. In an approximate translation it is a wish for Voiculescu to leave to Congo together with his crooks party for being mocked by the locals for kissing Nastase's a**. Sounds better in Romanian - we certainly have a sharp sense of humour.
Also, at the same weblog - Presa de ziare (a very good Romanian one with realistic and sharp analysis on what's going on in Romania) a good argument about the Romanian political whoreship. Highly recommended - unfortunately for people who understand Romanian only.
So number 3 bought number 2 in the ERP market after a more than a year chase. The value of the deal: $10.3bn which is more than 3.5x revenues -- ppslft $2.8bn, oracle $2.6bn in 2003. Back in June 2003 the initial offer was $5.2bn.
Dan Gillmor's got the background of the whole story, also for the ERP industry overview and trends read my article published last month in Computerworld.
Very nice experiment, reminds me of Connex's "tu faci viitorul" campaign. Except for the fact that at 43 things you could see how many people share your goals.
Apparently it's an universal thing having your front end representatives (sales people) to shrug whenever asked about stupid or most of the time inefficient operational practices that they call "company's policies". My last one was a few days ago when I asked a clerk on why does she have to put 5 (five) stamps for validating a simple invoice. (a single piece of paper!) Of course she said "that's the way we should do it". For non-Romanians, the corporate stamps have an equal weight to a signature whenever you want to formalize things (i.e. contracts, invoices, etc). Don't ask why though.
Project Ocean was a Google initiative at the beginning of the year (secret at that time) to digitize the entire library from Stanford (the alma mater of the Google's founders) and make it a available to the public. Aparently now the project became larger with Harvard, University of Michigan, Oxford and New York public Library databases being added. The implications are huge -- everybody's going to have access to some of the most important knowledge sources on the planet for free -- at Google's cost. What's in it for Google? -- more (exclusive) content indexed. Apparently the revenues coming from the contextual ads as a result are well worth the effort, also in the Google Print context. More insightful coverage at Battelle's blog.
I have been reading about several scenarios baked these days on how the new governmental structure will look like as well as what coalitions will be formed at the Parliament level. Before presenting one of the scariest ones keep in mind the context: none of the parties alone can have a majority in the two chambers and the diverse combinations between the main actors (PSD, DA, PRM, PUR, UDMR, and other minorities) would lead to a weak and fragile majority given the interests they stand for.
Now, here's the scenario (link in Romanian): at the Parliament level there is a group of people (the so-called National Political Block - NPB) representing PSD, PUR, PRM, UDMR and even PNL (which is part of DA) intending to send a letter to the president Basescu (who is supposed to be validated by Parliament on Monday) claiming they would like to nominate the government and the PM since they have a solid majority. Apparently they have this right given by the Constitution.
Logically, Basescu would turn the claim down and appoint Tariceanu as a PM leading a minority government. Consequently, the NPB would accuse the president of bad faith and will ask for his suspension at the Constitutional Court. (again invoking the Constitution, art. 95) If the Court gives the suspension ok the Senate's president appoints the PM and government. Then, since the DA will contest the Constitutional Court's decision of suspending Basescu, he will be re-appointed but will have already a government in place.
Does this make sense? Even if it sounds plausible, (I am not sure about the legislative circuit though) it depends on too many variables. On one side there are many schemes circulating involving people losing power and allying as such. The best piece of evidence is Iliescu awarding Vadim Tudor (PRM leader) and his brother some cavalerly distinctions for "important legislative contributions" And yes, that happened yesterday (!) and any sane person would acknowedge that this is simply more of a bribery than "openess" from Iliescu's side "to collaborate with all the responsible factors for the Romanians welfare". Not to mention that Vadim Tudor's only contribution to Romania was yelling un-supporteed accusations and offending his various enemies (and yes that included Iliescu several times)
On the other side, let's not underestimate Basescu and his team power. After all this is a clear indication that the revolution is still taking place, and it ain't over till it's over. Ex-communists are desperately seeking for remaining in place and obviously would make any compromise for that. And this type of scenario, as horrible as it sounds, seems to be like their specialty, we've seen it for a long time now. I just hope their time's gone in 2004.
My regular readers may have noticed that lately, given the Romanian election context, I haven't followed that much my daily business and strategy related gigs. I got a bit carried away by what is going on in Romania on the political level --- very interesting times, the history is being written these days.
Things will get back to the course from my perspective even though I will keep a close eye on what is happening in the political arena in Romania. As such I will try to keep you updated on it.
Also, I would like to publicly thank all of my readers who IM-ed me or sent congratulation emails, diverse stories or links - I really appreciate all of them, I must say they were flattering at least.
Interesting venture started by some Harvard MBAs -- Bid for me basically bids or find the best available hotel and eventually travel options for you. Internet is the working medium and the model relies on a combination of time and money saver while speculating the market assymetries. The charge is $10-$30 for every successful bid.
According to EvZ. At a difference of almost 2.5%. Final results. Liberte, fraternite, sanatate! :)
As of 2pm according to the officials 98.1% of the votes were counted resulting in a 51.3% number of people who had preferred Basescu. Moreover, PUR - PSD's partner announced that it breaks it the alliance they had formed for running two weekes ago and that they will form an independent group in the Parliament. Early signs that the ship is sinking :)
It looks like it is a quiet period now, everybody's waiting for the official results. Similar to what happened in the US elections a month ago, apparently before saying anything official Basescu is waiting for Nastase's losing the elections confirmation. At 2 o'clock Nastase is said to have a press conference for commenting the intermediary results. One more hour and we will see who will lose and, also important, how he will lose - 2 weeks ago Basescu was accused that he didn't know how to lose when he claimed elections frauds.
With 92% of the votes counted, Mr. Basescu was on 51.7%, ahead of the current prime minister Adrian Nastase. [link]
UPDATE: The final results to be released officially today at 2pm.
Most of you may know already the exit polls of the today's elections from Romania. According to some it was a tie (exactly 50%/50%), according to others it was 50.7 to 49.3 Nastase vs. Basescu. Now, I wouldn't go that far to call a winner even though only by watching the campaign staff on TV it is clear that Basescu's side is happy and relaxed while Nastase's (and the actual PM himself) behaved as if it'd been a funeral.
I would just say that on my way home tonight I stopped downtown for a while and noticed lots of people who were simply happy. Dancing and singing all Basescu's campaign songs. Hoping for a better time. (actually there was a funny-dirty slogan, i hope you won't get offended for me quoting it here -- "nu vrem s-o sugem in urmatorii 5 ani" which means something like "we don't want to s*** for the next 5 years") Most of them were young, perhaps in their 30s on the average. And it just stroke me that in the last 15 years or so I haven't seen so many Romanians being happy except for a sport event (Football World Cup from 1994 that is - when the Romanian team made it to the quarter finals). And I mean going out downtown and celebrating it together. And this simple fact gives me tremendous hope that we are not as stupid as we're presenting ourselves in most of the given circumstances on the official level. We have a big chance actually to make a big leap in a short period of time.
I was watching Iliescu - the actual president - on CNN tonight and I felt ashamed. Embarassed that this guy was speaking in my name. Embarassed that the second question he was asked about Romania was how he can explain the big corruption accusations coming from all over the place. And realized that the guy he endorsed in these elections - Nastase - is no better than him. On the contrary, he would just perpetuate a rotten system.
My believe is that people voting for Nastase (about 25% of the Romanians --- a half from the about 55% people who had voted) can be categorized into the ones that truly believe that he is an option -- and with all due respect IMO they don't really understand the times we live in -- and the opportunistic category. (a very broad one, but I won't go into details at this point) But there is another quarter that understands that we need to be open to change. We need to be smart. We need to be pragmatic and we need to have respect. For ourselves and for the people we deal with. We need to understand the context and create options, so that we can create value for us as a country. We don't really know how to do that now simply because historically speaking we didn't have the chance to learn it properly. And certainly the people with the above-mentioned profile voting for Nastase don't have the right profile for creating this context.
Tomorrow we shall officially learn if we are going to take the long road or the shorter one on our way to become respectable as a nation. On the individual level there's no doubt that we are - it's just that some representing us there don't live up to the world's pulse and to aligning our needs to it. And more than ever this alignment needs to be done asap.
Simple and very powerful. More info at the FAQ section.
...is the day when the Romanians will have to choose who is going to be their President for the next 5 years. An important call I would say for which my choice is quite evident. For my Romanian readers who are not decided yet (either to go vote or whom to vote for -- though I find the latter rather implausible) have a look at some clips from the only time when Nastase had the guts to face Basescu to talk about what is important for Romanians. Those clips are more relevant than anything I would be able to say - so please have a look and tomorrow go and choose whatever you think is best for you and for the rest of 24-25 millions from all over the world. Even though the immediate impact of your choice would seem to be close to zero, on the long term the tomorrow's decision is extremely important for the way Romanians will behave and be perceived all over the world.
Last night there was the one and only chance for a direct TV confrontation between the two candidates for the Romanian presidency. I think that Basescu was the clear winner, he was concise, to the point AND answered all the questions. I doubt Nastase answered 20% of what he was asked, he insanely kept mentioning that he finished the negotiations with EU and that Romania is having an economic boom because of him. I felt as if Nastase was very unsure of himself, very nervous and as if he hadn't done his homework.
I won't get into more comments, Basescu is obviously the better one and he did a great job and camapaign for proving it. However, I believe that Nastase is more likely to win since the majority of Romanians seems to live (STILL) in an inertia that don't permit them to raise to the national agenda importance. As simple as that, I wish I was wrong, but hey, it won't be the end of the world. Finally, perhaps it is worth noting that right after the show there were four analysts on a different TV channel who were grading the guys' performance in terms of appearance, the message content, psychology and charisma. The results: Nastase got 4 grades of 6 and Basescu 3 of 8 and a 9. (1 lowest and 10 highest)
UPDATE: It turns out that Andrei Gheorghe, the last night show producer (the one with the post debate grades awarding) was fired. So much for being objective in a country where all TV stations sing the government tunes. Let's hope at least it was worth it.
MORE UPDATE: If you're interested in reading the entire transcript of the debate you can dowload the doc from here.
EVEN MORE UPDATE: Thanks to Iulia, here's a story in Romanian with some details of the debate's background. It turns out that before the show Basescu was hit and spit by the PSD fans. It sounds incredible but perfectly plausible considering the nature of the entire PSD campaign.
I don't really have a strong macroeconomic background, on the contrary, but I will try to explain the reasons for the upcoming currency denomination in Romania. For the last 15 years or so the Romanian economy has not been very performant and this reflected in the value of its currency. The governement was running high deficits since the expenses were higher than the revenues and printed money as a consequence --- this reflected on a high inflation rate --- actually Romania had hyperinflation for several years in the 90s (according to the International Accounting Standards it means a rate higher than 100% cummulated over a period of 3 consecutive years -- or 2, am not very sure). And inflation was one of the main cause for the accentuated currency devaluation over the years, of course a result of a poor performant economy (not restructured, big discrepancies between the labor level and productivity, etc)
Lowering the inflation was one of the main monetary policy's targets and at the beginning of this decade the economic indicators started to improve as a result of attacking it. Probably this year we will have a single digit inflation rate and since the economy is doing better (we will probably have 8% gdp increase this year) it means that currency should reflect better its value. Hence the reverse process of currency devaluation (i.e. the printing money process at a rate higher than the borrowing rate leads to devaluation). This revaluation should reflect better the value of the currency and is a direct result of the improving economic conditions.
Now, having lots of zeros in the end of the currency is also a pain in the back - it makes it difficult to work with for example when doing financial modelling or budgeting (imagine 15 digit numbers - that is if you don't work in million ROL like I used to). Technically speaking a stronger currency should lower the inflation and this will happen at zero costs - no losses, no gains as stated in the ppt conclusions, it's simply an equivalent replacement and not an intention to decrease the money supply.
At the same time though it will have larger implications since stronger currency involves better premises for investments/savings choices. (it increseases the confidence in a currency unit stronger and closer to the euro unit). Also keep in mind that now the strongest banknote in Romania is the 1 mill ROL bill which is about 25 euros whereas everywhere else that stands for at least 50-60 euros.
Finally, this denomination process represents an intermediary and preparatory process for adopting the euro in a 7-8 years frame. As far as I know Russia did it in 1998 when it had big economic problems, Bulgaria as well before pegging their currency to the then-Deutsche mark, and Poland if I am not mistaken, sometimes earlier in the mid90s.
That's the way I see it, I hope it makes sense. If there's anybody with a strong macroeconomic background reading this please fill me in with more info explaining the concepts. I will try to look for some materials as well.
For people willing to spend 5 minutes reading it - my recommendation is not to. It's a typical 1000-word article not saying anything and yet mentinoning the European values, EU, NATO, terrorism, 9/11, Balkans and the other bla-bla. Why I mention it here - it's the exact type of fad discourse Nastase especially had during these elections. Instead of what needs to be done specifically he had either this kind of speech or direct attacks against the opposition such as: "you sold the fleet", "the precedent government didnot have any accomplishment" a.s.o.
My guess is that he didn't even bother to write the article himself and besides, having it had published was paid by me and the rest of 21.5 million of Romanian taxpayers.
Some of you may know that starting with July 1 next year, the Romanian currency will be re-nominated by cutting 4 zeros (1 new ROL = 10,000 old ROL). As such dual prices will be shown in the 1.03.2005 - 30.06.2006 period, both bills will circulate in the 1.07.2005 - 31.12.2006 period and the old bills would be available for being changed by the end of 2009. People who understand Romanian may find more details from this presentation I got via my friend Vasile and which ends with the following conclusions that I find quite amusing:
Nobody loses, nobody gains, it all gets simpler. Because of that everybody wins in the end and positive atitude makes this win even bigger. (sic!) Other countries' experience indicates that this change is not difficult at all, and should the macroeconomic indicators help, the inflation will go down after the denomination.
That's the name of my last article published in Computer World Romania at the end of last month. You can download the pdf from Krogos white papers section. (in Romanian)
It's old news already - IBM sells the PC maker unit to Chinese Lenovo Group for $1.75 bn. Why - because a PC is like a toaster nowadays (read commodity). Mark puts it very well in strategic terms using Clayton Christensen. For a better understanding or a theoretical backgorund of what he is saying perhaps it'd be good to take 2-3 good hours and listen to this while having this presentation in front of you. Highly recommended.
UPDATE: Read over at the Register two very good related articles: one about the post-PC era (good questions and a great analogy with the car users) and another one speculating on a potential close partnership between Apple and IBM. Why not?
- Also, via Jeff - apparently the deal also involves IBM taking an 18.9% stake in Lenovo.
- By reading Jonathan Schwartz's take on the matter and the post PC era, it just stroke me that IBM's move is similar to Intel's exit from RAM business back in 1984. At that time RAM was a compete-on-price industry with scale and costs as main drivers and with Japanese producers focusing on the operational efficiencies in the driver's seats.
After the Greeks Italians are under the radar for having reported to the European Commission underestimated trading deficit numbers since 1997.
Before calling it a day here's something fun I got via Freex - it's about systems from all over the world:
Democrat
You have two cows.
Your neighbor has none.
You feel guilty for being successful.
Republican
You have two cows.
Your neighbor has none.
So?
Socialist
You have two cows.
The government takes one and gives it to your neighbor.
You form a cooperative to tell him how to manage his cow.
Communist
You have two cows.
The government seizes both cows and provides you with milk.
You wait in line for hours to get it.
Its expensive and sour.
Capitalism, American style
You have two cows.
You sell one, buy a bull, and build a herd of cows.
Democracy, American Style
You have two cows.
The government taxes you to the point you have to sell both to support a man in a foreign country who only has one cow, which was a gift from your government.
Bureaucracy, American Style
You have two cows.
The government takes them both, shoots one, milks the other, pays you for the milk, and then pours the milk down the drain.
American Corporation
You have two cows.
You sell one, lease it back to yourself and do an IPO on the second one.
You force the two cows to produce the milk of four cows. You are surprised when one cow drops dead.
You spin the announcement to the analysts stating you have downsized and are reducing expenses.
Your stock goes up.
French Corporation
You have two cows.
You go on strike because you want three cows.
You go to lunch and drink wine.
Life is good.
Japanese Corporation
You have two cows.
You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and pduce twenty times the milk.
They learn to travel on unbelievably crowded trains.
Most are top in their class at cow school.
German Corporation
You have two cows.
You engineer them so they are all blond, drink lots of beer, give excellent quality milk and run a hundred miles an hour. Unfortunately they also demand 13 weeks of vacation per year.
Italian Corporation
You have two cows but you don't know where they are.
While ambling around you see a beautiful woman.
You break for lunch.
Life is good.
Russian Corporation
You have two cows.
You have some vodka.
You count them and learn you have five cows.
You have some more vodka.
You count them again and learn you have 42 cows.
The Mafia shows up and takes over however many cows you really have.
Taliban Corporation
You have all the cows in
You don't milk them because you cannot touch any creature's private parts.
You then kill them and claim a
Iraqi Corporation
You have two cows.
They go into hiding.
They send radio tapes of their mooing.
Polish Corporation
You have two bulls.
Employees are regularly maimed and killed attempting to milk them.
Florida Corporation
You have a black cow and a brown cow.
Everyone votes for the best looking one.
Some of the people who like the brown one best, vote for the black one.
Some people vote for both.
Some vote for neither.
Some people can't figure out how to vote at all.
Finally, a bunch of guys from out-of-state tell you which is the best-looking cow.
New York Corporation
You have fifteen million cows.
You have to choose which one will be the leader of the herd, so you pick some fat cow from
Here's a very good interview (in Romanian unfortunately) with Sergiu Toader - one of the most important guys in the TV news producing area from Romania. He started in the heydays of ProTv in 1995, immigrated to New Zealand in 2001, returned and worked for Antena 1 and now is working for Realitatea TV.
Some quotes:
"The Romanian society is primitive, things are settled according the free will of the most powerful side. Unfortunately, the most powerful is the one with the materialistic means of being powerful. Everybody is playing the independent role, but it's just a comedy, and in Romania this type of comedy is of poor quality."
"With two or three exceptions, Romania has a political class formed by impostors and incompetents. That means people pretending they're able to perform (i.e. solve problems - or what they're paid for - MY COMMENT) and actually they don't know how to do it. [...] Besides being incompetent they're also aggresive"
"All TV stations are in PSD's portfolio -- ProTV, Antena 1, TVR, all generalists stations. [...]They have some evident relationships with the government and there's nothing we can do about it."
That says about all and it makes you wonder how it'd be possible to have, for example, a facelift for an extremist party by removing its leader when everything inside is rotten and the external context is like this. No pun intended. But that is the situation and Toader has been around for a while, as such he knows most of the above-mentioned local undergrounds and they come very much close to my own observations.
Very important also, I hope you're familiar with these days' TVR (the national TV station) scandal whereas a journalist - Alex Costache - is publicly accusing the news producers of government obedience and opposition censorship. The TVR CEO didn't take it that well after reading everything in the newspaper and in a face-to-face discussion he tried to threaten with the police when Alex tried to record it just to be on the safe side. The journalist is to be fired of course even though there are several colleagues of his making similar statements - I actually know few stories as well since I happen to have some friends working for TVR either. But it doesn't matter that much - what is more important though is that those are revolution signs or sparkles, hopefully things will start to change.
...the Becker-Posner Blog - written by Gary Becker and Richard Posner. (via Marginal Revolution of course). See for yourself why, I only wish I had more time - there's a pile of stuff to read already. And this includes 3quarksdaily, btw.
Why it sucks --- fully agreed, I need a good IM app incorporating all my clients and that includes Skype's. I guess IM, email and Skype are my main tools for doing business nowadays.
Apparently the new release of MSN messenger and Hotmail is likely to be sometimes at the beginning of 2006. Preview here.
Compiled statistics of company names from the FT.com search log compared to the ones showing up from the recent FT articles. The names appearing with a greater frequency in the search logs will and not covered inthe latest FT articles are likely to indicate a developing story. Very, very interesting - it reminds me of Trendum (link via Umair)
Not well, but apparently better than Canadians:
1. cellphones - coverage, price ubiquity
2. informative traffic lights - time counters --- we have that in Bucharest too :)
3. transit debit cards - unique passing cards for all public transportation means --- that's happening in most Europe, not yet in Romania (there's a project for Bucharest in 2005 as far as I know though)
4. adult playgrounds
5. anti-theft slipcovers -- those last two may have something to do with the cultural differences though
6. daily banking -- banks open 7 days a week -- internet banking is the solution here --- interestingly enough did you know that the number of internet banking users is higher in Europe than in North America?
7. wireless service bells -- they were studying to introduce this in McDonalds as well
8. parking data -- that is a problem in Europe as well, in Bucharest it is going to be a BIG problem in the next 3 years or so.
9. computer seating maps in theaters
10. free hemming
2 pdfs: a 2004 EU market survey - quite comprehensive, I just skimmed it and saved it for when I will have time to go through it and a paper released by Ventoro with a research and good overview on the offshore fundamentals. Both are from this year so the stats may also be relevant.
Excerpts from one of the most lucid international analysis of Romania I have ever read:
"The divide between Nastase and Basescu is typical of the pattern of politics in states that are lagging behind in the process of globalization; some segments of the population stand to lose from reform and others to gain. The former segments support parties and candidates pledged to protect or expand the safety net, and the latter back the expansion of the market economy.[...] When -- as in Romania -- the balance tilts towards social defense, the globalization process is retarded rather than arrested or reversed. The E.U. appears to be satisfied with this imperfect result and to be more eager to complete its design than to demand complete Westernization."
"Given the convergence between the Alliance's pro-Europe policy and the aspirations of its constituencies, it has the relatively straightforward task of representing its base effectively. The same is not the case for the Social Democrats who -- for geostrategic reasons, self-interest of the established political class and the overall advantages to the Romanian economy from integration with Europe -- must negotiate the tension between the reforms demanded by the E.U. and the safety-net and protectionist concerns of its base. Through Iliescu's rule, the P.S.D. made halting reforms and played to the fears of its base. When, between 1996 and 2000, the centrist opposition was in control, its factional splits did not permit it to govern effectively."
"The PSD's record shows how difficult it is for a lagging state to manage its contending social forces. A disadvantaged state entering the globalizing economy is, by definition, ill prepared to compete successfully. The dislocations that a forthright adjustment and restructuring would cause mobilize those who would be adversely affected to defend their threatened interests. One of the possibilities of dealing with social stress when the prospective losers outnumber the prospective winners is a relatively weak go-between or middle-man that has sufficient power to take care of itself as it placates and wards off the forces with which it negotiates."
"It is reasonable to conclude that the E.U.'s receptivity toward Romania indicates a shift in the organization, which began with the absorption of the other post-Communist states in Eastern Europe, from a community with uniformity of standards to a power bloc with overriding geostrategic aims. From a geostrategic perspective, a Romania isolated from Europe could become a source of instability -- a breeding ground for organized crime that could spill over into the E.U., and possibly a failed state. As the E.U. bids to become a regional power with a foreign policy geared to its own interests and independent of the United States, incorporation of Romania, which is already a member of N.A.T.O., appears to be the most prudent option to the European political class."
"More a geostrategic acquisition than a full partner, Romania bids fair to become the new "sick man of Europe" inside the E.U. Whether the presidential runoff yields a continuation of the P.S.D.'s oligarchical rule or the efforts at reform pledged by the Liberal-Democratic alliance, the country will remain impoverished, socially divided and prone to corruption, with a weak minority government, since a coalition with the ultra-nationalists is anathema to Europe. The possibility of a crisis caused by renewed claims of serious election fraud looms, but what is more likely is a continuation of stumbling along and delayed and watered-down compliance with E.U. demands. Accession remains the most likely outcome, but even it is not certain."
Read the whole thing from here.
Some of you may be aware that there is this website called IT Conversations hosting a series of discussions, interviews or conference transcripts under mp3 format with several opinion makers on different issues. There's plenty of material to choose from, I have been using it for a month now listening to 3-4 webcasts a week, my personal favourite is Clayton Christensen's "Capturing the Upside".
Well, nowadays Doug Kaye - the guy behind the concept - is looking for the best way to capitalize his idea. And while he has several business models as options to choose from he decided to start a conversation with his users for this exact reason. Is it useful? You bet - check it out by yourself. In strategy terms - he's engaging with his stakeholders by using social software tools - that's a great example of how to define the strategic intent.
I found a good website that provides mapping, distance calculation and optimized routes betweeen cities and villages across Romania. It was about time, it's pretty neat, and I know that the Romanian way of indicating how to get from one place to the other is not the easiest, and it is updated (includes the A2)
Also, for people living in the US and interested to fly to Romania or Europe there's a consolidator airfares. My brother tried it out -- he said that one can find there good deals NY-Buch. on short-term basis rather than long term (i.e. next summer). Anyways, give it a try - I am not affiliated in any way with them :) Here's the link.
Tonight I was chatting with one of our business partners about the political situation in Romania nowadays. I was complaining about the lack of difference from the political scene and about how Consumer Joe is swallowing every single thing that is served at the prime time. He was mentioning that it takes time for fresh blood to make it to the ranks and that a revolution could emerge sooner that I would imagine. And then he mentioned that what we need reminds him of the Apple's advert based upon Orwell's 1984. To my shame I had no idea what he was talking about - but then I figured it out. We certainly need that blonde throwing the hammer. :) (clip)
Apparently the news is not that fresh, I just learnt it via Andrei's blog.
For unitiated Philip Kotler is one of the marketing gurus, or the father of marketing as some would like to put it. He is currently a professor at Kellogg and also is involved in a company called Kotler Marketing Group. I had the chance of seeing him live together with Michael Porter and Michael Brennan in an one-day seminar in Oslo back in 2003. He talked about wasted marketing, marketing as a value creation process and about the impact internet will make in the years to come. Great speech, very energetic and knowledgeable - it is one of those days I will always remember.
Well, this guy is coming to town in May next year for a workshop over at the Marriott and for a conference at the Palace of Parliament. The workshop is a bit pricey - 1380 euros, and for the conference early birds can benefit from discounts - it gets as low as 349 euros if you register before December 18. The conference will be customized to Romania and its characteristics by taking into accounts the questions you can ask beforehand.
Some of you may know that today December 1st is the Romanian National Day - it is basically the day when Transilvania re-joined Romania after WWI in 1918. Earlier on that year (sometimes in March if I remember correctly) also Basarabia and Bucovina joined Romania. This day was set as a national day in December 1989, prior to that 23 August was the one - the day when the Romanian government turned against the Nazis and fought in the WWII alongside the Allies.
I didn't make any fuss about it as I don't feel special at all on this day. Besides it is a regular working day for me and my team. Also I am not very fond of the parades as they remind me of the communist ones and I actually am not feeling that patriotic these days due to the elections circus.
Anyways, the reason of this introduction is that if you're interested what it was like in downtown Bucharest today on the Romanian National Day you can check this flashmob - the first of its kind in Romania according to Eugen.
How long do you think it will take? Hard to know but here are some calculations for a start. :) (via Alex)
Some of you may already know it - I am just passing the news along: Apple's got a blog.
It makes sense after all -- apparently the fraud evidence Basescu is mentioning is backed by mathematics. For people not understanding Romanian I will try to sum it up - on Monday at 12 BEC (the National Elections Office) released the preliminary results indicating that number of cancelled votes (bulletins that were annuled for one reason or another) was 392,447. At 5 o'clock this number was 232,597, which is impossible - the number of revoked votes can only stay the same or increase. Moreover, if it had been a mistake at 5 o'clock the total number wouldn't have made a round total (i.e. 100% composed of the revoked plus eligible).
At 12 the difference was 2% for the candidates and 1.5% at the chambers and the approximately 160k difference represents about 2% - that is the increase in the gap between Nastase and Basescu at 5 o'clock.
I wouldn't venture to say that the percentage is high or low as the differences are still there, I would just say that it is a combination of negligence, incompetence and fraud. Keep also in mind the "elections tourists" - people travelling by bus within the country for multiple voting - and again that is a fact. And besides the mathematics, the way people from BEC or from PSD are reacting to the accusations is not working in their favor - they were not even smart enough to operate clean - that is if they did it of course. :)
My question is: what would you do if you were Basescu or DA's strategist? Or on the other side - Nastase and PSD? The most credible way out that I see is starting the counting all over again in the most transparent way. But I doubt it will happen in Romania in 2004.
UPDATE: BTW, the BEC rejected the elections annullment claim 21 votes to 5. [link]
