Most of you may know that last week Basescu gave an interview claiming that PUR's being part of the government is at least immoral given that in Parliament its representatives voted for PSD's leaders (now in the opposition) - Nastase and Vacaroiu as presidents of the two chambers. As a reaction PUR's representatives wanted to step back from the government then they backed from this decision.
I didn't intend to report it at that time since I am not particularly happy about the entire bargaining/blackmailing for positions situation taking place these days and having PUR in the center of attention. However, having discussed the issue with some folks over the weekend I realized that PUR's position is not entirely understood by everybody - or at least the way I think it is going on.
I believe that Basescu's message had a double meaning. For one, he clearly warned PUR that their "immoral" double game with PSD and DA is not to be accepted and the new elections represent a better choice for keeping the governmental program on its agenda. Early elections were the reason for PUR not taking action on Basescu's accusing them of lack of morality, even though they formally had to "consult" among themselves before reaching this predictable conclusion.
The second play of Basescu's declarations is clearly intended to the electors. Something like: "we did a big compromise by accepting PUR in the government for being able to fulfill our economic agenda. PUR is evil and be aware that we made a pact with them only for the national interest. Should they not behave "morally" we would call what's best for the nation's interest - early elections that is"
That's my take on what had happened, I thought it was quite clear but I heard several stories that I'd rank on a scale from funny to idiotic. (i.e. Basescu has no right to claim such things, Tariceanu (the PM) has no power, etc, etc). I believe it was a smart strategic move and I think Basescu has a great strategy team behind. Not only the results were quite obvious, but also at the threat of potential early elections caused by PUR's retreat PSD rushed to claim that they "support the actual government".
More details about this story and PUR over on the FT today's edition. (also quoted by Business Romania)
Although I personally don't like TB too much, his activity so far shows some real qualities. On a related issue, I haven't found any serious analysis on IMF's reaction related to the new tax policy in Romania. Could you please comment on this subject?
Play 3: Basescu sees the current situation as an opportunity to grab power. Lets face it, Iliescu's last days in office were an embarassment. The PSD can't do too well in a new round of elections. PUR seems compromised and won't make the cut, PRM is embarassing as well... who's left to vote for? Any claims by DA leaders to make this move for "moral reasons" should be discounted. Any party/leader would do the same in his shoes, if they saw clear gains from a new vote. It would be stupid not to take advantage. If anything, "morals" would tell them to let things be, live with the results, and stop the circus. It makes us all look bad.
The best thing at this stage would be to call for new elections. While PNL-PD has been fairly disappointing since being elected (they have their own problems, their own corruption scandals and their own instability - nothing's really changed too much), I think that there is, as Silviu said, no other alternative. PSD may still get an important portion of the vote, but not as much as they got in the November elections. PUR and PRM will get a small number of votes, UDMR will probably remain on what they got in the first place. Therefore, unless new elections are called soon and PNL-PD (perhaps with the help of UDMR) can form a majority government, we may as well have the same situation as the 1996-2000 governments, where the government was changed three times and very little was actually achieved.
They cannot call the early elections until they face a "political crisis" situation. Of course DA is doing its best for creating a context as it is better off this way - if PUR for example had retreated from the government we would have had one ---- hence the PSD rush to claim that they support the government. It looks like it is not that easy to come to the elections context that early -- perhaps by the end of the year it's more realistic, when there will be enough gaffes, mistakes or scandals made by the government/administration and that the opposition could capitalize on.
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