You can find here (PDF) the Economist Intelligence Unit's forecast for Romania in the years to come. It says that in spite of the expectation of completing accession negotiations by October 2004, and a commitment by the European Commission to support Romania in its objective of joining the EU in 2007, there is a significant risk that membership will be delayed until 2008-09.

"The EU's difficulties in absorbing ten new members in 2004, as well as the reform challenges facing Romania, are likely to delay membership. However, the accession framework will provide incentives for the government to persist with reforms, leading to improvements in the business environment."

In the meantime, the guys from CSFB consider that even with a strong push it is not realistic for the government to close all chapter negotiations before October 2004. They are polite enough to mention though that even in this case, given they close chapters in the next 12 months, the 2007 target date for EU integration remains credible.

I think that the 2009 accession date appears to become more credible since this year's integration of 10 countries may take longer to be digested. Also, I don't believe in things done under the time pressure, several details may be overlooked - this is what actually happens in Romania. I am not worried about it though the EU integration should be a mean not an end.